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P(Execute)™ - Probability of Successful Execution
Our proprietary framework to determine if a deal performs as underwritten by isolating risk upfront.
Why P(Execute)™ Exists
Traditional underwriting underestimates execution risk.
Senior living investing carries real operational complexity — regulatory timelines, staffing models, clinical programs, and state-by-state licensing. Spreadsheets can model returns, but they can't model the operator's ability to execute the plan.
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P(Execute)™ quantifies that gap. It targets controlled execution risk with asymmetric return potential — surfacing what matters before capital is committed.
The Framework
Five Risk Pillars
Each pillar is scored 0–100%, then weighted and
aggregated into one composite P(Execute)™ score.
Operator
Capability
Evaluate operator execution depth, track record, specialization, and ability to operate through complexity.
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Regulatory & Licensing
Senior living is state by state. Assess licensing transfers, compliance, citations, staffing requirements, and timing friction that can delay transitions — often 60–180 days.
Business Plan Complexity
More moving parts increases execution risk. Assess staffing model changes, clinical/program changes, turnaround scope, timeline clarity, and milestone realism.
Market
Alignment
Assess durable demand, 75+ demographic tailwinds, supply pipeline, pricing power, and payer mix durability.
Deal
Structure
Pressure-test capital stack, covenants, maturity/refi risk, reserves, downside protections, and alignment.
Score Interpretation
Three Confidence Bands​
85%+ High Acquisition Confidence
Strong alignment across all five pillars.
Proceed with conviction.
70-85% Medium Acquisition Confidence
Actionable with targeted restructuring or repricing around weaker pillars.
<70% Elevated Execution Risk
Material execution gaps. Reject or fundamentally restructure before proceeding.
Application
How We Use P(Execute)™
Target
Selection
We focus on opportunities scoring 70%+ P(Execute)™ — filtering for deals where execution risk is controlled and return potential is asymmetric.
Diligence Framework
Pillar-specific checklists and underwriting validation ensure every dimension of execution risk is systematically tested.
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Risk
Mitigation
We structure protections around the weakest-scoring pillars — so downside is addressed before closing, not after.
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